IMF sees brightness after worse recession in Nigeria
By Chris Ndibe
The International Monetary Fund (IMF)has released its World Economic Outlook, projecting that Nigeria’s economy would peak up to 2.4 per cent in 2021 but warned it would, this year, experience the worst recession in 30 years.
In its World Economic Outlook, IMF said that GDP would fall sharply in Nigeria and South Africa, the two largest economies on the continent.
IMF said that because of the outbreak of coronavirus pandemic, Nigeria’s economy will drop from its 2.2 per cent growth in 2019 to -3.4 per cent this year.
It added that there would be significant economic contractions in oil-exporting countries due to the raging pandemic.
By the prediction, it would be the worst recession for Nigeria in 30 years after a negative economic growth of 1.51 per cent in 2016.
In 1987, the Nigerian economy receded by -10.87 and -0.6 in 1991.
The IMF projection was contained in the April 2020 World Economic Outlook report released on Tuesday in Washington.
IMF chief economist and director of the research department, Gita Gopinath said that the recession to be experienced would be the worst since the Great Depression between 1929 and 1932 when the advanced economies shrunk by 16 per cent.
“For the first time since the Great Depression, both the advanced economies and emerging and developing economies are in a recession,” the IMF said, yesterday.
“For 2020, growth in advanced economies is projected at -6 per cent. Emerging markets and developing economies which typically have normal growth levels well above advanced economies are also projected to have negative growth of -1 per cent and -2.2 per cent if you exclude China,” IMF managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, said.
It also disclosed that South Africa’s GDP will contract 5.8 per cent in 2020 from a growth rate of 0.2 per cent in 2019.
The Fund also projected that sub-Saharan Africa’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will contract by 1.6 per cent in 2020, compared to 3.1 per cent growth recorded in 2019.