The Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI) has said that Tinubu has done more to strengthen the economy and attract foreign capital to Nigeria than previous administrations did with multiple oil windfalls.
In a policy statement signed by its Chairman Dr Omoniyi Akinsiju, the think tank noted that successive administrations between 1999 and 2015 failed to convert this historical windfall into enduring industrial assets or diversified non-oil growth.
Acccording to IMPI, previous administrations deployed surplus capital into short-term consumption, debt clearance of $12 billion paid to Paris Club creditors in the case of former President Olusegun Obasanjo, and the funding an unconstitutional Excess Crude Account (ECA).
The policy group said: “Because the ECA lacked constitutional backing, state governors routinely forced distributions that depleted the fund from $22 billion in 2008 to under $3 billion by 2014 with the funds predominantly used for recurrent public sector consumption rather than capital infrastructure.
“Furthermore, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) during this period utilized foreign exchange earnings to artificially peg the Naira, subsidizing cheap consumer imports and routing billions of dollars towards imported refined petrol while domestic refineries lay in disrepair.
“When global oil prices crashed in late 2014, Nigeria was left without structural buffers, sliding into a severe currency crisis and its first major recession in decades by 2016, with national poverty rates surging to between 45% and 53%.
The think tank further averred that the severe structural vulnerabilities inherited after 2014 plunged Nigeria into consecutive current account deficits,bottoming at $17 billion in 2019 and $15.8 billion in 2020.
“Recognizing that defensive interventions and price controls could no longer sustain the economy, bold market corrections were initiated in 2023 under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration centered on FX unification and petrol subsidy elimination.
“While these painful corrections initially induced elevated domestic inflation and currency depreciation, they successfully re-engineered Nigeria’s external balance sheets.
“Consequently, Nigeria has transitioned from volatile deficits to a multi-year streak of current account and merchandise trade surpluses, expanding gross foreign reserves from $45 billion to $55 billion by Q3 2026 (providing over 14months of import cover),” IMPI surmised.
“The current policy regime has taken the harder, necessary path—dismantling unsustainable subsidies and market distortions to build a self-sustaining economy backed by real productivity and robust external buffers.”
Describing the factors that are credited to the reinvigorated national economy, IMPI noted that domestic refining integration has converted Nigeria from a net fuel importer into a regional exporter of refined products across West Africa, while non-oil exports especially agricultural produce, solid minerals, and industrial chemicals have surged significantly.
In part recognition of this, credit rating agencies including Moody’s, Standard & Poor’s, and Fitch have upgraded Nigeria’s sovereign ratings and outlooks, lowering international borrowing costs and driving historical capital gains on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX).
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- How JP Morgan’s Nigeria expansion will open more doors for FDIs-IMPI*
The Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI) has described the formal entry of one of the world’s leading financial institutions, JP Morgan Chase into Nigeria’s banking industry as proof that Nigeria’s economy is becoming more attractive to Foreign Direct Investment (FDIs).
In a policy statement signed by its Chairman Dr Omoniyi Akinsiju, the think tank noted that the bank’s formal application for a merchant banking licence is bound to pave way for more multinational corporations to consider long-term business investments in the country.
“JP Morgan Chase’s move to secure a national merchant banking license in Nigeria marks a significant shift in West Africa’s corporate finance landscape. Transitioning from a representative office to a fully licensed merchant bank allows JP Morgan to extend beyond institutional coverage into trade finance, corporate lending, cross-border underwriting, and balance-sheet execution.
“Though the expansion provides a strong endorsement of the Tinubu administration’s market-oriented reforms, its structural impact on Nigeria’s Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) must be critically appraised through both strategic opportunities and practical risks.
“A major institutional barrier to FDI in West Africa is the cost of capital and the complexity of structuring project risk. With direct merchant banking capabilities, JP Morgan can underwrite large-scale energy infrastructure, telecommunications, and industrial projects, sharing risk with international consortiums.
“A fully operational merchant bank lowers execution drags for multinational corporations entering Nigeria. It offers direct cross-border trade lines, structured commodity hedging, and syndicated offshore/onshore financing without relying on domestic intermediary banks.
“Sovereign and corporate debt issuers in Nigeria gain direct access to global capital markets. This is just as the presence of the world’s largest investment bank validates Nigeria’s macro-stability narrative to global pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, and private equity firms.”
IMPI argued that Nigerias foreign investment dynamics are Improving under the President Tinubu administration as a result of its bold policy choices.
“Our analysis found that the near four years of the Federal administration mark a record of consistent current account surpluses, underpinned by an aggressive strategy to not only drive FDI but also link it to domestic macroeconomic stability with a medium- to long-term microeconomic impact.
“This structural pivot stems from bold, yet painful market corrections initiated in 2023. The corrections were driven primarily by the unification of the foreign exchange market and the elimination of the costly petrol subsidy.
“While these policies initially triggered significant domestic inflation and currency depreciation, they successfully re-engineered Nigeria’s external balance sheets and attracted renewed global investor attention.”
The policy group also provided some insight into how Nigeria is beginning to attract more Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs) than Foreign Portfolio Investments (FPIs)
“The CBN strategy under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration has been clear: use high-yielding FPI to aggressively clear FX backlogs and defend the Naira in the short term, while structural reforms steadily rebuild investor trust for long-term FDI. While the surge in portfolio investment successfully boosted foreign reserves to over $55 billion, it came at the cost of high domestic borrowing rates for local businesses.
“But from our standpoint, as inflation begins to moderate, the focus is shifting toward converting these temporary portfolio flows into permanent, factory-to-market FDI.
“For nearly two years, foreign capital prioritised government debt and Treasury bills (FPI) over physical infrastructure (FDI) because short-term paper yielded safely above 25%. As yields on fixed-income securities compress in alignment with the 23% Monetary Policy Rate (MPR), the relative attractiveness of letting cash sit passively in bonds decreases.
“Institutional capital and cross-border private equity firms will naturally begin migrating their asset allocations away from volatile money markets and into higher-yielding physical equity investments, infrastructure concessions, and greenfield corporate projects,” it added.
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