Unresolved Eritrea-Djibouti Tensions Threaten Regional Peace

When Eritrea and Ethiopia agreed last month to end
their decades-long conflict, the international community responded
enthusiastically.

Less than a day after the countries signed a joint declaration of
peace, United Nations Secretary General António Guterres suggested that
sanctions against Eritrea, imposed for alleged support of al-Shabab, an
extremist group based in Somalia, may soon be lifted.

That action would further undo Eritrea’s isolation.

But lingering grievances with its neighbor, Djibouti, could complicate regional integration, experts say.

Escalating tension

Eritrea’s push to forge regional ties moved forward last week when
President Isaias Afwerki invited Somali President Mohamed Abdullahi
Mohamed to the capital, Asmara, in a striking show of high-level
diplomacy after more than a decade of frayed relations.

But rapprochement with one neighbor heightened tensions with another.

During the visit, Mohamed voiced his country’s support for lifting
U.N. sanctions against Eritrea, a gesture that drew ire from both
Djibouti and opposition groups within Somalia.

Sanctions were imposed in 2009, not only over concerns about Eritrea’s role in Somalia, but also its dealings with Djibouti.

Last November, the U.N. recommended dropping inquiries into
connections in Somalia after failing to find evidence of links to
al-Shabab. But it reiterated concerns about Eritrea’s border with
Djibouti and its unwillingness to seek a diplomatic solution to the
conflict.

That’s prompted Djibouti, which contributes troops to the African Union’s peacekeeping mission in Somalia, to demand mediation.

But other factors may be fueling its grievances.

Some experts on the region believe that a rekindled relationship between Ethiopia and Eritrea leaves Djibouti out in the cold.

Ulterior motives?

Kelsey Lilley is the former associate director for the Atlantic
Council’s Africa Center. She told VOA that Djibouti’s response to the
possible lifting of sanctions reflects deeper concerns.

“The fear of U.N. sanctions being lifted on Eritrea points to the
really sticky situation that Djibouti is in overall, which is that, as
Eritrea opens, what happens to its business model,” Lilley said.

Djibouti has spent recent years investing in large-scale
infrastructure projects: a port, a railway, a water pipeline and, most
recently, a free-trade zone.

The deals for these projects, funded and built by China, were inked
when Djibouti provided Ethiopia’s sole access to the sea. With
discussions already underway for Ethiopia, the region’s economic
powerhouse, to utilize Eritrean ports, Djibouti’s unique value may be
diminished, and that puts it in a precarious economic position, Lilley
said.

Djibouti has taken on massive debt to build its infrastructure, and
most projects promise to pay dividends, but only after many years.

Diplomatic impasse

In an open letter to the U.N. Security Council on July 30, Mohamed
Siad Doualeh, Djibouti’s ambassador to the United Nations, said,
“[T]here is no escaping the fact that the international boundary remains
disputed, Eritrea continues to occupy Djiboutian territory, prisoners
of war remain unaccounted for, threat of force continue to emanate from
the Eritrean side, and the risk of violent confrontation remains high.”

In a series of tweets, Nebil Said, Eritrea’s counselor to its
Permanent Mission to the United Nations, refuted Djibouti’s claims. Said
stated that Eritrea had released all Djiboutian prisoners of war in
2016 and had never occupied Djiboutian territory. The burden of proof to
substantiate accusations of wrongdoing, he added, lies with Djibouti,
not Eritrea.

Doualeh’s concerns have been validated, at least in part, by the
U.N.’s Somalia-Eritrea Monitoring Group. In its most recent report,
published in 2017, the Monitoring Group concluded that Eritrea was
continuing to support the Front for the Restoration of Unity and
Democracy, an armed group intent on destabilizing Djibouti.

But the truth behind other claims remains obscure.

Last year, U.N. investigators said they saw evidence of Eritrean
troop movement near disputed land, but only on their own side of the
border. And claims about the number of POWs still captive in Eritrea
have not been verified following prisoners who escaped, were released,
or have died.

Conflicting claims have led to an impasse, and Eritrea has, so far, not shown a willingness to negotiate.

Political stability

Threats to Djibouti’s economy could also jeopardize political
stability in the country, Lilley said. That stability has helped the
current government maintain its grip on power, but it hasn’t necessarily
translated into benefits for everyday people.

Djibouti has a high poverty rate, and the political opposition says they’re locked out of the process.

“I think the regime could lose here, but I think the Djiboutians really are already losing,” Lilley said.

For things to improve, the government would have to rethink how it
uses the money that comes in through sources like multi-year leases to
rent space for military bases, a source of significant revenue for the
country.

It may also have to re-approach its relationships with international
partners. Tighter regional integration could mean the possibility of
military bases in Eritrea, giving nations interested in a presence in
Africa’s Horn more options.

That could prompt countries to scrutinize their partnerships with Djibouti, Lilley said, and consider better deals elsewhere.

Djibouti has been backed into a corner, according to Lilley, but its
best strategy is to avoid being a spoiler for the peace process
unfolding.