NBS predicts Nigeria’s GDP’s recovery
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has predicted a very impressive Gross Domestic Product (GDP) recovery trend 20 months after the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic hit the Nigerian economy.
NBS data showed that real GDP grew by 4.0% year-on-year (YoY), compared to -3.6% in Q3 2020.
The nominal GDP for Q3 2021 was also up 15.4% (YoY), compared to 3.9% in Q3 2020. On a quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) basis, the real GDP grew by 11.1% (compared to -0.3% in Q2 2021), whilst nominal GDP also grew by 15.7% QoQ, better than the -2.2% recorded in Q2 2021.
Commenting on the report, analysts Verraki Partners said, the numbers are reflective of higher economic activity and sustained recovery.
Further analysis of the data showed that the oil sector which now accounts for 7.5% of the GDP declined by 10.7% YoY (12.1% growth QoQ) in Q3 2021.
The performance of the Nigerian oil and gas sector has remained sub-optimal, recording consistent decline (11.0% on the average) in the last six quarters.
According to the data, average crude oil production in Q3 2021 was 1.57 million barrels per day (mbpd), 6.0% below the average production in Q3 2020 and 0.27mbpd below 2021 budget assumption.
On the flip side, average Brent crude oil price increased 76.0% from 43$pb in Q3 2020 to 76$pb in Q3 2021, partly responsible for the $6billion year-to-date growth in the foreign reserves to $41.4billion.
“The non-oil sector accounts for 92.5% of the GDP and has shown impressive resilience (3.7% average growth) in the last four quarters, offering greatest sustainable growth potential.
The sector grew by 5.4% YoY in real terms (6.7% in Q2 2021) and driven by activities in the trade, ICT, manufacturing, finance and insurance, among others. Despite value chain dislocations that came with the pandemic, a few non-oil economic sub-sectors performed relatively well and are forecast to sustain a growth trend in the mid to long-term.