In the course of tracking global oil markets, I come across a
world whose economic and political order is fast shifting. The systems
and organs that have previously sustained globalised consensus on many
issues like trade, peace and human values are certainly undergoing a
shakeup. What is uncertain is whether this change is transient or if it
will survive the times
world whose economic and political order is fast shifting. The systems
and organs that have previously sustained globalised consensus on many
issues like trade, peace and human values are certainly undergoing a
shakeup. What is uncertain is whether this change is transient or if it
will survive the times
The key change driver has been
US President Trump with his “USA-first” policies. The USA (together with
the EU) has historically been the principal sponsor and pillar of
globalised free markets. The US unilateralism has caught the world
unawares, unprepared and unsure how to respond, with Europe, China and
Russia all reacting with varying pushback.
US President Trump with his “USA-first” policies. The USA (together with
the EU) has historically been the principal sponsor and pillar of
globalised free markets. The US unilateralism has caught the world
unawares, unprepared and unsure how to respond, with Europe, China and
Russia all reacting with varying pushback.
In quick
successions Trump has rattled multilateral institutions that have
previously held the world together. He has doubted and challenged the
roles of the UN structures and the WTO while ridiculing the
common-interest groupings like NATO and G7. I am not quite sure of
Trump’s standing on World Bank and IMF, but I can guess he does not give
them a high priority.
successions Trump has rattled multilateral institutions that have
previously held the world together. He has doubted and challenged the
roles of the UN structures and the WTO while ridiculing the
common-interest groupings like NATO and G7. I am not quite sure of
Trump’s standing on World Bank and IMF, but I can guess he does not give
them a high priority.
Whether the next president after
Trump will uphold or reverse the ongoing “USA-first” positioning is a
matter of guesswork. But whichever future route USA takes, it will
hardly be the same world we have previously known. However in
rearranging a disorganised condition, opportunities do usually arise to
structure new and better global economic protocols and systems. It will
all depend on leadership effectiveness.
Trump will uphold or reverse the ongoing “USA-first” positioning is a
matter of guesswork. But whichever future route USA takes, it will
hardly be the same world we have previously known. However in
rearranging a disorganised condition, opportunities do usually arise to
structure new and better global economic protocols and systems. It will
all depend on leadership effectiveness.
With the traditional shared USA-EU global leadership now in a
flux, China and Russia are likely to leverage the ongoing trade and
political uncertainties to consolidate their global positioning.
Specifically for China, it may just fit in well with what appears to be
its long term plans for economic, political and military ascendancy.
Already China ranks a strong second in global economy. China claims it
can outlast USA in the ongoing trade wars.
flux, China and Russia are likely to leverage the ongoing trade and
political uncertainties to consolidate their global positioning.
Specifically for China, it may just fit in well with what appears to be
its long term plans for economic, political and military ascendancy.
Already China ranks a strong second in global economy. China claims it
can outlast USA in the ongoing trade wars.
I am
singling out China because it has a significant stranglehold on Africa
including Kenya. The US and EU economic footprints in Africa were
diluted by China when the West was pre-occupied with fight against
Islamic fundamentalism. It is only now that USA and Europe are playing a
catch-up game as China embarks on phase-two plans for global
ascendancy…
singling out China because it has a significant stranglehold on Africa
including Kenya. The US and EU economic footprints in Africa were
diluted by China when the West was pre-occupied with fight against
Islamic fundamentalism. It is only now that USA and Europe are playing a
catch-up game as China embarks on phase-two plans for global
ascendancy…
Whichever way China plays its global
cards in the coming years; our continent has a vested stake with the
Chinese. An overheated Chinese economy at the turn of this century
brought China into Africa seeking oil, gas and minerals to support its
industrialisation, while also seeking export markets.
cards in the coming years; our continent has a vested stake with the
Chinese. An overheated Chinese economy at the turn of this century
brought China into Africa seeking oil, gas and minerals to support its
industrialisation, while also seeking export markets.
When
the Chinese arrived, they found countries severely handicapped in
infrastructure development and funding. And China saw the opportunities.
Today, China is not only a major participant in Africa’s natural
resources, but also the most significant player in infrastructure
construction and associated credit financing. Africa is also a major
export market for the Chinese industries.
the Chinese arrived, they found countries severely handicapped in
infrastructure development and funding. And China saw the opportunities.
Today, China is not only a major participant in Africa’s natural
resources, but also the most significant player in infrastructure
construction and associated credit financing. Africa is also a major
export market for the Chinese industries.
For Kenya,
China remains both a big opportunity and a tricky challenge. We need to
quickly learn how to deal with China, a country that is known to be an
expert at maximising value and content for itself through
self-determination. The Chinese mostly leverage to their advantage,
African nations disadvantaged negotiating positions.
China remains both a big opportunity and a tricky challenge. We need to
quickly learn how to deal with China, a country that is known to be an
expert at maximising value and content for itself through
self-determination. The Chinese mostly leverage to their advantage,
African nations disadvantaged negotiating positions.
With
China we need mutuality and balanced economic partnerships which have
so far been hard to achieve. China should buy more from us. They should
also seriously consider targeted developmental support for Kenya. These
should be on the agenda for the forthcoming FOCAC meeting. Also in the
agenda I am sure will be ultimately getting the SGR to Kampala and
Kigali- a job that we must complete for maximum strategic value to
Kenya.
China we need mutuality and balanced economic partnerships which have
so far been hard to achieve. China should buy more from us. They should
also seriously consider targeted developmental support for Kenya. These
should be on the agenda for the forthcoming FOCAC meeting. Also in the
agenda I am sure will be ultimately getting the SGR to Kampala and
Kigali- a job that we must complete for maximum strategic value to
Kenya.
Kenya should also be looking far and wide.
Diplomatically and trade-wise we need to keep all options open with EU
and USA while upping our trade engagements with any other nation that
has value to add to Kenya. This way we shall gradually wean ourselves
from China.
Diplomatically and trade-wise we need to keep all options open with EU
and USA while upping our trade engagements with any other nation that
has value to add to Kenya. This way we shall gradually wean ourselves
from China.
Finally, it is hoped that the ongoing
Trump’s experimentation with global trade and economic protocols will
soon come to pass. This is good for stability and predictability of
global trade and financial markets.
Trump’s experimentation with global trade and economic protocols will
soon come to pass. This is good for stability and predictability of
global trade and financial markets.
